In 2020 and 2021 Ethiopia completed the first and second phases of filling the GERD reservoir. It projects that the Dam will be fully operational by 2023. The Nile provides about 90 percent of Egypt's freshwater supply, meaning the source of these waters lies in the upstream countries. The Nile Basin countries could become involved in the open conflict because of their high levels of dependence on Nile waters. Ethiopia sees the hydroelectric dam as a defining sustainable development project; Sudan has seemed open to the promise of the new availability of the cheap electricity the GERD offers and the expanded agricultural production that it promises. In contrast, Egypt is primarily seeing the possible loss of Nile waters as an existential threat. As the process of filling the Dam has proceeded, tensions have arisen, primarily between Egypt and Ethiopia, but also now between Sudan and Ethiopia. There is a growing fear that these countries could be drawn into the open conflict because of disagreements bearing on their perceived national security interests. How real is the claim that Ethiopia's ability to control the flow of Nile waters is a looming threat to Egypt's national security? Is the mistrust among the governments of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan so high that inter-state hostilities might become militarized sooner or later? Or is progress being made behind the scenes to lessen and even resolve major disagreements? What is the impact of Ethiopia's internal tensions on the situation? And could the GERD ultimately become the source of cooperation rather than conflict?
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
8:00 AM - 9:30 AM (Pacific Time)
Webinar
Click here to register
The Nile River Basin in Crisis
Water Sharing and Transboundary Conflict or Cooperation
— Webinar Series —
October 2021 - March 2022
The UCLA African Studies Center and Samueli School of Engineering are pleased to announce a 10-part webinar series on the Nile River Basin crisis. Ethiopia has recently begun to fill its newly-built Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River; it now needs to become fully operational. However, a crisis has emerged involving disagreement between Ethiopia and downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, on the sharing of the Nile waters, the dam filling period, and water allocation during and after filling the dam. There is an urgent need to consider the formation of a solution to the resulting tensions among the states that depend on the water resource of the Nile River. This webinar series will bring together scholars and practitioners to present research and policy papers on various aspects of this issue, and carefully consider alternative solutions to the Nile River dispute.
William Davison is a Senior Analyst for Ethiopia with the International Crisis Group. Prior to joining the ICG in 2019, he was Bloomberg’s Ethiopia correspondent from 2010 until 2017. He has also published in The Guardian, Foreign Policy, Al Jazeera, Christian Science Monitor, and other international media. In 2018 he founded Ethiopia Insight, from which he is editorially detached. He is particularly concerned with issues relating to regional and international security in the Horn of Africa.
|
Schedule of Online Events
All times are in Pacific Time (i.e. Local time in California).
|
October 13
(7:00 – 8:30 am PDT)
|
The Nile River from Colonial to the Immediate Post-Colonial Era
Tereje Tvedt, Ph.D., Professor in the Department of Geography, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
|
|
October 27
(8:00 – 9:30 am PDT)
|
Post-Colonial Interstate Relations in the Nile Basin
Marina Ottaway, Ph.D., Middle East Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center
|
|
November 10
(8:00 – 9:30 am PST)
|
Interstate Security Issues in the Nile Basin after GERD
William Davison, Senior Analyst, Ethiopia, International Crisis Group
|
|
November 23
(8:00 – 9:30 am PST)
|
Current Uses of the Nile Water, and Impacts of GERD
Yohannes Gebretsadik, Ph.D., Regional Water Resources Analyst, Nile Basin Initiative
Hani Sewilam, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Engineering Hydrology, RWTH Aachen University, Germany
Ageel Bushara, Hydrologist, Zuhair Fayez Partnership Consultants, Saudi Arabia
|
|
December 8
(8:00 – 9:30 am PST)
|
The Nile flows towards the Red Sea and not the Mediterranean
Ana Elisa Cascão, Ph.D., Independent Consultant and Researcher
|
|
January 12
(8:00 – 9:30 am PST)
|
The Role of Nile Water Resources in the Economic Development of Egypt and Ethiopia and the Potential Impacts of the GERD Filling Policies
Kenneth Strzepek, Climate, Water and Food Specialist, MIT Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab; Research Scientist, MIT Center for Global Change Science; Visiting Fellow, Martin School, University of Oxford; Professor Emeritus, University of Colorado, Boulder
|
|
January 26
(8:00 – 9:30 am PST)
|
The GERD Dam Filling Impact and Mitigation Strategies
Kevin Wheeler, Ph.D., Oxford Martin Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
|
|
February 9
(8:00 – 9:30 am PST)
|
Nile Basin Reservoir Management and Operation Tools
Mohammed Basheer, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, U.K.
Hisham Eldardiry, Ph.D., Postdoctoral Research Associate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
|
|
February 23
(8:00 – 9:30 am PST)
|
Successful River Basin Agreements in Other Basins Similar to the Nile
Susanne Schmeier, LLM, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Water Law and Diplomacy, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
|
|
March 9
(8:00 – 9:30 am PST)
|
Towards Long-term Solutions and Management Options for the Nile States
John Mbaku, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Economics, Weber State University in Ogden, Utah, and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution
|
|
Registration using the link above in the text or at https://ucla.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_mAxQBtURT6yIl_DXFbgd-w
Cost : Free webinar
African Studies Center323-335-9965
africa@international.ucla.edu www.international.ucla.edu/africa
Sponsor(s): African Studies Center, Engineering